A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
