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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But this year's field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical season!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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